Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
